Аграрный вестник Урала № 09 (176) 2018Агротехнологии
ESTIMATION AND FORECAST OF YIELD OF GRAIN CROPS IN THE TERRITORY OF VOLGOGRAD REGION DUE TO CHANGES IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
The article considers the forecast of grain cropsyield in connection with the change of economic activity and global climatechange (according to the GFDL and UKMO scenarios – warming by 2 and 3–4 °C).The risks associated with the change of crop yields of grain crops werecalculated considering pessimistic and optimistic forecasts, the positiveaspects of the impact of forest reclamation were identified. The results obtained, because of their ambiguity, make itdifficult to make an accurate forecast, but they convincingly suggest thatclimate change will affect winter crops more favorably. Undoubtedly, globalclimate change will definitely affect agricultural production, itseffectiveness. At the same time, it was considered that the yield of graincrops substantially depends on the variety and type of crops used at this timestage, the technology used for their cultivation and the amount of fertilizersapplied. The role offorest strips for the pessimistic forecast is 55 %, and for the optimistic – 83%. The risks associated with climate change depend on the predicted scenario ofthis change. In the pessimistic forecast, in the version without forest strips,the risks due to climate change will increase by 4.27 times compared to therisks of the period 1960–2005. At forest-reclaimed arable land, the risk inthis case will also increase, but its increase will be only 2.78 times. In theoptimistic forecast, in the version without forest strips, the risk will bereduced by 8.3 times, it will be 0.12, and in the version with forest strips,the risk will be reduced by 34.5 times, it will not exceed 0.029 and it willnot be presented practically.
forecast crop production, crops agricultural production, global climate change, forest melioration.
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