Agrarian
Bulletin
of the Urals

Russian Journal of Agricultural Research

The publication is registered by the Ministry of the Russian Federation
for Affairs of the Press, Television and Radio Broadcasting and Mass Communication Media.
Registration certificate: PI number 77-12831 on May 31, 2002
Subscription index in catalog «Russian Press» - 16356
ISSN 1997 - 4868 (Print)

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Journal is included in the list of VAK (from 25.09.2017), No. 291

ISSN 2307-0005 (Online)
Key title: Agrarnyj vestnik Urala (Online)
Abbreviated key title: Agrar. vestn. Urala (Online)

Аграрный вестник Урала № 09 (176) 2018

Агротехнологии

Турко С. Ю. кандидат сельскохозяйственных наук, научный сотрудник Федеральный научный центр агроэкологии, комплексных мелиораций и защитного лесоразведения Российской академии наук

Трубакова К. Ю. инженер-исследователь Федеральный научный центр агроэкологии, комплексных мелиораций и защитного лесоразведения Российской академии наук

Власенко М. В. кандидат сельскохозяйственных наук, старший научный сотрудник, Федеральный научный центр агроэкологии, комплексных мелиораций и защитного лесоразведения Российской академии наук

УДК:551.583:633.1

ESTIMATION AND FORECAST OF YIELD OF GRAIN CROPS IN THE TERRITORY OF VOLGOGRAD REGION DUE TO CHANGES IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

The article considers the forecast of grain cropsyield in connection with the change of economic activity and global climatechange (according to the GFDL and UKMO scenarios – warming by 2 and 3–4 °C).The risks associated with the change of crop yields of grain crops werecalculated considering pessimistic and optimistic forecasts, the positiveaspects of the impact of forest reclamation were identified. The results obtained, because of their ambiguity, make itdifficult to make an accurate forecast, but they convincingly suggest thatclimate change will affect winter crops more favorably. Undoubtedly, globalclimate change will definitely affect agricultural production, itseffectiveness. At the same time, it was considered that the yield of graincrops substantially depends on the variety and type of crops used at this timestage, the technology used for their cultivation and the amount of fertilizersapplied. The role offorest strips for the pessimistic forecast is 55 %, and for the optimistic – 83%. The risks associated with climate change depend on the predicted scenario ofthis change. In the pessimistic forecast, in the version without forest strips,the risks due to climate change will increase by 4.27 times compared to therisks of the period 1960–2005. At forest-reclaimed arable land, the risk inthis case will also increase, but its increase will be only 2.78 times. In theoptimistic forecast, in the version without forest strips, the risk will bereduced by 8.3 times, it will be 0.12, and in the version with forest strips,the risk will be reduced by 34.5 times, it will not exceed 0.029 and it willnot be presented practically.


Keywords:

forecast crop production, crops agricultural production, global climate change, forest melioration.


References:

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7. Vasilyev Yu. I., Turko S. Yu. General provisions of farm planning // Bulletin of the Russian agricultural science. 2015. No 3. P. 12–13.

8. Vasilyev Yu. I., Turko S. Yu., Ovechko N. N. Mathematical modelling of long-term variation of winter wheat yield in open and forest space // Russian Agricultural Sciences. 2016. No 1. P. 38–41.

9. Ovchinnikov A. S., Litvinov E. A., Vasilyev Yu. I. et al. Private land use in Russia and abroad, prospects for their rationalization and optimization // Proceedings of the Lower Volga Agrodiversity Complex Science and Higher Professional Education. 2016. No. 2(42). P. 282–290.

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